The New Car Assessment Program (CAP) has gauged the performance of vehicles in frontal impact tests since model year 1979. NCAP test speeds and impact locations closely resemble the conditions in a large proportion of actual frontal crashes that result in fatalities or serious injuries. The relationship between NCAP test scores and actual fatality risk on the road was studied. Head-on collisions between two 1979-91 passenger cars in which both drivers were safety belts were selected from the 1978—92 Fatal Accident Reporting System. There were 396 collisions (792 cars) in which both cars were identical with or very similar to vehicles which had been tested in NCAP. In the analyses, adjustments were made for the relative weights of the cars, and for the age and sex of the drivers.

There are statistically significant correlations between N CAP scores for head injury, chest acceleration and femur loading and the actual fatality risk of belted drivers. In a head—on collision between a car with good NCAP score and a car of equal weight with a poor score, the driver of the car with the better NCAP score has, on average, a 15 to 25 percent lower risk of fatal injury. Cars built from 1979 through 1982 had, on the average, the poorest NCAP scores. Test performance improved substantially from 1983 onwards. In parallel, fatality risk for belted drivers in actual head-on collisions decreased by 20 to 25 percent in model years 197991, with the largest decreases just after 1982. The paper concludes with a survey of possible future goals for NCAP.