Updated Correlation of Results from the Australian New Car Assessment Program With Real Crash Data from 1987 to 1996

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Abstract and keywords

A number of ongoing major initiatives have been established to assess relative vehicle occupant protection performance for consumer information. Two of these initiatives are the Australian New Car Assessment Program (ANCAP) and the Used Car Safety Ratings (also known as Vehicle Crashworthiness Ratings and Driver Protection Ratings). The first of these estimates the relative occupant safety of current model vehicles by measuring dummy responses in controlled crash testing. The second initiative estimates the relative risk of severe driver injury for individual models of vehicles involved in real crashes by examining mass crash data. A study by Newstead and Cameron (1997) has examined the relationship between the results from these two programs. The broad aim of this project was to further assess the relationships between the results of these two programs using more current data and covering a wider range of vehicle models.

The results of correlation of ANCAP test results with real crash outcomes as measured by crashworthiness ratings suggest a number of relationships. Firstly, whilst the results from full frontal ANCAP testing have some association with real crash outcomes, the associations between offset ANCAP testing and real crashes are much stronger. The ANCAP test results and their associated measures have strong association with both the injury risk and injury severity components of the crashworthiness rating when considering all crash types, and with the injury severity component of crashworthiness rating when considering two-car head-on crashes. Correlations were generally stronger between ANCAP results and two-car head-on crashes than with all crash types but this difference was not large. Mass adjustment of the ANCAP probability measures also improved their relationship with real crash outcomes. Detailed analysis of injury data by body region generally confirmed the results of the correlation analysis using a more detailed and specific method of analysis.

Logistic regression models of crashworthiness ratings and its components as a function of ANCAP measures were built, providing a direct functional relationship between the two programs as compatible and consistent measures of relative vehicle occupant protection.

Keywords: Vehicle safety; crashworthiness; crash test; injury; vehicle occupant; collision; passenger car unit; data analysis; statistical analysis

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Cited By (3)

Year	Entry
2001	Haley J, Bonney V. Old car crash test program. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV). June 4-7, 2001; Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
2003	Kreiss J-P, Zobel R, Busch S. Essential components of a statisticaly valid crashworthiness rating. In: Proceedings of the 18th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV). May 19-22, 2003; Nagoya, Japan.
2005	Draheim A, Hurnall J, Case M, Del Beato J. Structural energy absorption trends in NCAP crashed vehicles. In: Proceedings of the 19th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV). June 6-9, 2005; Washington, DC.