Front‐crash thoracic injury protection has lagged improvements in injury risk to other body regions, possibly because existing anthropometric test device injury metrics are insensitive to the predominant mechanisms and sources of real‐world injury. Directly comparing injury outcomes for post‐mortem human subjects (PMHSs) with outcomes for living humans may help identify injury factors that should be targeted. For this study, 113 PMHS front sled tests were identified that met inclusion criteria generally representative of the modern fleet. Logistic regression was used to model the risk of a subject sustaining at least n fractured ribs, with different values of n evaluated. Test delta‐V, PMHS sex, the presence of airbag loading, and the presence of knee bolster loading were all significant predictors of the risk of sustaining the median number of fractured ribs (n = 6) at α = 0.05. PMHS age did not predict the risk of ≥6 fractured ribs, but it was a significant predictor of higher numbers of fractured ribs. These tests demonstrate the protective effects of distributed airbag loading and of the lower extremity load path. The second phase of this research will compare the locations of fracture between the PMHS tests and field crashes.