The probability of death score:​ an improvement of the injury severity score

Somers, Ronald L.

Affiliations

¹Accident Analysis Group, Laboratory for Public Health and Health Economics. Odense University Hospital, DK-5000 Odense C, Denmark

²Present Address: N. H. & M. R. C. Road Accident Research Unit, University of Adelaide, G.P.O. Box 498, Adelaide, South Australia 5001

Abstract

Two large sets of data containing information on the injuries and survival status of traffic accident casualties were used to develop a summary injury score from the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). The summary injury score, dubbed the Probability of Death Score (PODS), was based on a logistic regression model of the two highest AIS codes taken from a 19-category coding scheme. A third large set of trauma data was used to compare the statistical performance of the PODS to that of the Injury Severity Score (ISS). Several measures of predictive accuracy and goodness of fit demonstrated the relative advantage of the PODS over the ISS in characterizing the association between injury and death.

Links

DOI: 10.1016/0001-4575(83)90049-0

WoS: WOS:A1983RJ14200001

History

Received: 1982-12-03

Cited Works (9)

Year	Entry
1981	Petrucelli E, States JD, Hames LN. The Abbreviated Injury Scale: evolution, usage and future adaptability. Accid Anal Prev. March 1981;13(1):29-35.
1957	Braunstein PW. Medical aspects of automotive crash injury research. JAMA. January 26, 1957;163(4):249-255.
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1978	Huang LC, Marsh JC IV. AIS and threat to life. In: 22nd Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). July 10-14, 1978; Ann Arbor, MI.242-254.
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1975	Bull JP. The injury severity score of road traffic casualties in relation to mortality, time of death, hospital treatment time and disability. Accid Anal Prev. December 1975;7(4):249-255.
1980	Partyka SC. A comparison of AIS and ISS predictions of fatality on NCSS. In: 24th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). October 7-9, 1980; Rochester, NY.156-169.
1976	Baker SP, O'Neill B. The Injury Severity Score: an update. J Trauma. November 1976;16(11):882-885.

Cited By (13)

Year	Entry
1992	Cavanaugh J, Zhu Y, King AI. Biomechanical response and injury tolerance of the thorax in seventeen cadaveric side impacts. In: Proceedings of the 2nd Injury Prevention Through Biomechanics Symposium. April 10-11, 1992; Detroit, MI.81-105.
2002	Cavanaugh JM. Biomechanics of thoracic trauma. In: Nahum AM, Melvin JW, eds. Accidental Injury: Biomechanics and Prevention. 2nd ed. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag; 2002:374-404.
1984	Dorsch MM, Woodward AJ, Somers RL. Effect of helmet use in reducing head injury in bicycle accidents. In: 28th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). October 8-10, 1984; Denver, CO.247-259.
1992	v Koch M, Korner J, Norin H, Nygren A, Tingvall C. Injury severity assessment for car occupants using disability scaling. In: 36th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). October 5-7, 1992; Portland, OR.251-268.
1998	McKendrew C, Hines MH, Litsky A, Saul RA. Assessment of forearm injury due to a deploying driver-side air bag. In: Proceedings of the 16th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV). May 31–June 4, 1998; Windsor, Ontario, Canada.1044-1054.
1985	Gustafsson H, Nygren A, Tingvall C. Rating system for serious consequences (RSC) due to traffic accidents: risk of death or permanent disability. In: Proceedings of the 10th International Technical Conference on Experimental Safety Vehicles (ESV). July 1-4, 1985; Oxford, England.556-560. SAE 856075.
1987	Eppinger R. On the examination of biases in the Abbreviated Injury Scale. In: Proceedings of the 11th International Technical Conference on Experimental Safety Vehicles (ESV). May 12-15, 1987; Washington, DC.253-257.
1989	Bunketorp O, Nilsson W, Romanus B, Falk S. The Gothenburg traffic injury register. In: Proceedings of the 12th International Technical Conference on Experimental Safety Vehicles (ESV). May 29–June 1, 1989; Göteborg, Sweden.493-499.
1986	Ulman MS, Stalnaker RL. Evaluation of the AIS as a measure of probability of death. In: Proceedings of the 1986 International IRCOBI Conference on the Biomechanics of Impact. September 2-4, 1986; Zurich, Switzerland.105-119.
1988	Friedel B, Glaeser K-P. The application of statistical methods in biomechanical research. In: Proceedings of the 1988 International IRCOBI Conference on the Biomechanics of Impact. September 14-16, 1988; Bergisch-Gladbach, West Germany.1-21.
2010	Norin H. Field data: a base for the development of safe vehicles. In: Proceedings of the 2010 International IRCOBI Conference on the Biomechanics of Impact. September 15-17, 2010; Hannover, Germany.3-14.
1990	States JD, Viano DC. Injury impairment and disability scales to assess the permanent consequences of trauma. Accid Anal Prev. April 1990;22(2):151-159.
1996	Saul RA. Development of a Methodology for Prediction of Liver Injury Due to Side Impact Loading in Motor Vehicle Accidents [PhD thesis]. The Ohio State University; 1996.