The objective of the present study was to examine the feasibility of probability‐based methods in quantifying the risk of rib fractures using finite element (hereafter FE) human body models under various loading conditions during side impacts. A series of simulated side impact experiments were performed using fracture and non‐fracture FE human body models placed in various seated positions. Simulations were performed in compliance with the IIHS SICE protocol. Five different seating positions were chosen for the simulations. The FE human body models used in the present study represent the anthropometry and material properties of 50 th percentile American 75 year old males. The predicted risk of fractures in both models, i.e. simulated fractures in the fracture model and hotspots on the non‐fracture model, were compared and analysed. The results indicated that the prediction of the first‐phase fractures indicated good correlation for both models, whereas the non‐fracture model did not represent the distribution of the second‐phase fractures simulated by the fracture model.