No method based on experiments is convenient for evaluating globally the potential risk of a given vehicle for the whole population of pedestrians at risk, which encompasses the smallest children and the tallest adults simultaneously, when a large range of impact speeds has to be considered.

Mathematical models are also inadequate, due to the large number of runs required for obtaining the probability of impact on each section of the front end profile.

This paper describes first a recently improved mathematical method for defining the head trajectories yielded by experimental simulations or by a validated mathematical model. Then, a computer program is presented that simultaneously uses this method and statistical data concerning real accidents. The output of this program is a distribution of the impact probabilities for a given profile. The head impact velocities can be utilized for weighing the results.

Possible improvements and application of this method are discussed.