A statistical simulation was performed to explore the effect on injuries and crash distribution if some vehicles were replaced with low‐mass vehicles (LMVs) that could not cause a crash due to comprehensive crash avoidance systems. Analysis was based on crash distributions in the 2002‐2009 NASS‐GES and NASS‐CDS datasets. The predicted distributions of injury and crashes are based on the current distribution of crashes, a shift in delta V caused by mass reduction, risks of injury for each crash mode, and a differing distribution of crash types resulting from comprehensive crash avoidance systems. If a vehicle could not cause a crash, it would be involved in 63% fewer crashes on average, including 93% fewer frontal impacts and 85% fewer rollovers; side and rear impacts would comprise a greater proportion of the remaining crash population. Risk of injury in frontal impact would be lower because of the substantially reduced exposure. However, risk of injury in near‐side impacts would be higher because of a higher delta V resulting from the lower mass. This study demonstrates techniques for estimating the change in fleet delta V distribution given the introduction of low‐mass vehicles. It also identifies how the phase‐in of crash avoidance technologies might affect crashworthiness priorities.
Keywords:
crash avoidance technologies, injury risk, low‐mass vehicles, safety priorities