Early identification of the high risk patient using the estimated injury severity score and age

McLellan, B. A.; Koch, P. J.; Wortzman, D.; Rogers, C.; Szalai, J.; Williams, D.

Affiliations

¹Trauma Program, Sunnybrook Medical Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

A prospective study was undertaken over a 2 1/2 year period (July 1, 1985 to December 31, 1987) to determine the value of a prospective anatomical severity score ("Estimated" Injury Severity Score (EISS)), in combination with age, for early risk assessment. Five hundred ninetytwo blunt trauma patients were used to develop a predictive model of mortality through a logistic regression. The model was validated using 216 patients; a high degree of agreement (Kappa 0.73) was found. When isolated head injuries were removed from the model and validation groups, the Kappa increased to 0.80. Prospective anatomical scoring in combination with age may help to identify the high risk trauma patient early during their care.

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