The future of hip fractures in the United States:​ numbers, costs, and potential effects of postmenopausal estrogen

Cummings, Steven R.; Rubin, Susan M.; Black, Dennis

Affiliations

¹Division of General Internal Medicine and the Clinical Epidemiology Program, Department of Epidemiology and International Health. University of California, San Francisco, California

Abstract

Because of the increasing number of elderly people in the United States, the total number of hip fractures in persons 50 years and older will rise from 238,000 to 512,000 by the year 2040, with a concomitant increase in avoidable deaths, disability, and medical costs. The total annual cost of hip fractures (in 1984 dollars) will increase from approximately $7.2 billion currently to $16 billion in the year 2040. Universal use of estrogen therapy by postmenopausal white women may slow but not prevent this rise in hip fractures. New, effective, and widely sapplicable strategies to prevent hip fractures are urgently needed.

Links

DOI: 10.1097/00003086-199003000-00024

PubMed: 2302881

WoS: A1990CR51500024

Ovid: 00003086-199003000-00024

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