Background:​ Several studies have examined the association between physical performance and fracture in women, but few such studies have targeted elderly men. This study aimed to determine whether the combined results of several physical performance tests can predict the subsequent incidence of fractures in elderly men after adjusting for confounding factors.

Methods:​ Of the 2174 elderly men who participated in this study, 2012 completed the baseline study visit, including physical performance tests (walking speed, hand grip strength, and one-leg standing) and measurement of bone mineral density by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Follow-up study visits were conducted five and ten years later, during which incident fractures were identified by detailed interviews. We excluded 140 men with diseases or who took medications known to affect bone metabolism at baseline, 185 with missing values for predictors and potential confounding factors, and one who did not participate in any of the follow-up study visits. The remaining 1686 men were analyzed. Each physical performance test was analyzed by quartiles. Poor performance was defined as belonging to the worst quartile of performance. The association between physical performance and fracture was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results:​ We identified 175 clinical fractures (osteoporotic fracture:​ 77, major osteoporotic fracture:​ 48) in 1686 men during a mean follow-up period of 8.4 years. After adjusting for potential confounding factors including bone mineral density, men who performed poorly on all three physical performance tests had a 3.7-fold higher risk of osteoporotic fracture and a 6.6-fold higher risk of major osteoporotic fracture than men who did not perform poorly on any of the tests.

Conclusions:​ Japanese elderly men who performed poorly on all three physical performance tests had a significantly higher risk of incident osteoporotic fracture independently of bone mineral density. The combined results of several physical performance tests may be useful for predicting incident fractures in elderly men.