Influence of injury risk thresholds on the performance of an algorithm to predict crashes with serious injuries

Bahouth, George; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl

This paper presents methods to estimate crash injury risk based on crash characteristics captured by some passenger vehicles equipped with Advanced Automatic Crash Notification technology. The resulting injury risk estimates could be used within an algorithm to optimize rescue care. Regression analysis was applied to the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) to determine how variations in a specific injury risk threshold would influence the accuracy of predicting crashes with serious injuries. The recommended thresholds for classifying crashes with severe injuries are 0.10 for frontal crashes and 0.05 for side crashes. The regression analysis of NASS/CDS indicates that these thresholds will provide sensitivity above 0.67 while maintaining a positive predictive value in the range of 0.20.

Year

Entry

2012

Eigen AM, Digges K, Samaha RR. Safety changes in the US vehicle fleet since model year 1990, based on NASS data. In: 56th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). October 14-17, 2012; Seattle, WA.241-251.

2003

Augenstein J, Perdeck E, Stratton J, Digges K, Bahouth G. Characteristics of crashes that increase the risk of serious injuries. In: 47th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). September 22-24, 2003; Lisbon, Portugal.561-576.

2001

Augenstein J, Digges K, Ogata S, Perdeck E, Stratton J. Development and validation of the urgency algorithm to predict compelling injuries. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV). June 4-7, 2001; Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

1997

Malliaris AC, Digges KH, DeBlois JH. Relationships between crash casualties and crash attributes. In: Proceedings of the SAE International Congress & Exposition. February 24-27, 1997; Detroit, MI. Warrendale, PA: Society of Automotive Engineers. SAE 970393.

1993

Siegel JH, Mason-Gonzalez S, Dischinger P, Cushing B, Read K, Robinson R, Smialek J, Heatfield B, Hill W, Bents F, Jackson J, Livingston D, Clark CC. Safety belt restraints and compartment intrusions in frontal and lateral motor vehicle crashes: mechanisms of injuries, complications, and acute care costs. J Trauma. May 1993;34(5):736-759.