How future trends in societal aging, air bag availability, seat belt use, and fleet composition will affect serious injury risk and occurrence in the United States

Kent, Richard; Funk, Jim; Crandall, Jeff

Affiliations

¹Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

Abstract and keywords

The objective of this study was to quantify the importance of societal aging relative to other factors that are known to affect injury risk. An aging population’s effect on Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3C injury trends for passenger car drivers in frontal crashes was projected and compared to the effects of projected changes in fleet composition, changes in seat belt usage, and changes in air bag availability. It was determined that increased frailty due to an aging population will result in 19,816 to 43,568 additional injuries to passenger car drivers in frontal crashes from 1996 to 2012. Aging was shown to have an effect similar to the increased presence of light trucks in the fleet (a cumulative increase of approximately 47,428 injuries). Aging and changing fleet composition were shown to have a smaller effect than the projected increases in seat belt use or air bag availability, though the effect of increased belt use is not much greater than the effect of aging. After 2012, however, air bag availability and seat belt use will plateau, while societal aging will continue.

Keywords: Aging; Air Bag Availability; Compatibility; Future Trends; Injury Projections; Seat Belt Use

Links

DOI: 10.1080/15389580390120871

PubMed: 14522658

History

Received: 2002-06-10

Accepted: 2002-09-29

Online: 2010-09-15

Cited Works (11)

Year	Entry
2000	Martin PG, Crandall JR, Pilkey WD. Injury trends of passenger car drivers in frontal crashes in the USA. Accid Anal Prev. July 2000;32(4):39-46.
1995	Miltner E, Salwende H-J. Influencing factors on the injury severity of restrained front seat occupants in car-to-car head-on collisions Accid Anal Prev. April 1995;27(2):143-150.
2001	Ageing and Transport: Mobility Needs and Safety Issues. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation And Development (OECD); 2001.
1999	McGwin G Jr, Brown DB. Characteristics of traffic crashes among young, middle-aged, and older drivers. Accid Anal Prev. May 1999;31(3):181-198.
1998	Miller TR, Lestina DC, Spicer RS. Highway crash costs in the United States by driver age, blood alcohol level, victim age, and restraint use. Accid Anal Prev. March 1998;30(2):137-150.
1989	Viano DC, Culver CC, Evans L, Frick M, Scott R. Involvement of older drivers in multi-vehicle side impact crashes. In: Proceedings of the 12th International Technical Conference on Experimental Safety Vehicles (ESV). May 29–June 1, 1989; Göteborg, Sweden.699-705.
1999	Oskvig RM. Special problems in the elderly. Chest. 1999;115(suppl 2):158S-164S.
1994	Martinez R, Sharieff G, Hooper J. Three-point restraints as a risk factor for chest injury in the elderly. J Trauma. December 1994;37(6):980-984.
1996	Zhou Q, Rouhana SW, Melvin JW. Age effects on thoracic injury tolerance. In: Proceedings of the 40th Stapp Car Crash Conference. November 4-6, 1996; Albuquerque, NM. Warrendale, PA: Society of Automotive Engineers:137-148. SAE 962421.
1998	Peek-Asa C, Dean BB, Halbert RJ. Traffic-related injury hospitalizations among California elderly, 1994. Accid Anal Prev. May 1998;30(3):41-50.
2000	Bulger EM, Arneson MA, Mock CN, Jurkovich GJ. Rib fractures in the elderly. J Trauma. June 2000;48(6):1040-1047.

Cited By (6)

Year	Entry
2015	Kent RW, Forman J. Restraint system biomechanics. In: Yoganandan N, Nahum AM, Melvin JW, eds. Accidental Injury: Biomechanics and Prevention. 3rd ed. New York: Springer; 2015:113-141.
2003	Kent R, Patrie J, Benson N. The Hybrid III dummy as a discriminator of injurious and non-injurious restraint loading. In: 47th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). September 22-24, 2003; Lisbon, Portugal.51-75.
2005	Kent R, Henary B, Matsuoka F. On the fatal crash experience of older drivers. In: 49th Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). September 12-14, 2005; Boston, MA.371-391.
2008	Kent R, Woods W, Bostrom O. Fatality risk and the presence of rib fractures. In: 52nd Annual Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM). October 6-8, 2008; San Diego, CA.73-82.
2004	Kent R, Lessley D, Sherwood C. Thoracic response to dynamic, non-impact loading from a hub, distributed belt, diagonal belt, and double diagonal belts. Stapp Car Crash J. 2004;48:495-519. SAE 2004-22-0022.
2014	Icke KJ. Determination of the Compressive Response of the Pediatric Thorax Utilizing System Identification Techniques [PhD thesis]. The Ohio State University; 2014.