The study aimed to determine the associations between the morphological types of proximal tibiofibular joint (PTFJ) and the risk of total knee replacement (TKR) in a cohort of participants with progressive osteoarthritis. A nested case–control design was performed in Osteoarthritis Initiative study. The case knees were those with TKR at 24–60 months follow up (cases), and were 1:​1 matched with control knees by age, sex, and Kellgren-Lawrence grade at baseline. The morphological type of each PTFJ was identified according to the coronal and sagittal MR images. Conditional logistic regression models were used to examine the association of the PTFJ types with the risk of TKR at baseline and the time point before TKR (T₀). A total of 193 case knees at baseline and 148 case knees at T₀ time point had matched controls between 12 and 60 M. Seven types of the PTFJ were identified and classified into three categories:​ plane, trochoid, and irregular types. The prevalence of the irregular type was higher in case knees than in controls both at baseline (cases vs. controls, 35.8% vs. 26.9%) and at T₀ time point (cases vs. controls, 33.1% vs. 27.0%). The irregular type of the PTFJ at baseline (odds ratio:​ 1.62, 95% confidence interval:​ 1.01–2.59) rather than at T₀ time point was significantly associated with increased odds of TKR. The irregular types of the PTFJ at baseline are associated with increased risk of TKR, suggesting PTFJ may play a role in knee osteoarthritis.