Risk matrices used in industry characterize particular risks in terms of the likelihood of occurrence, and the consequence of the actualized risk. Human cognitive bias research led by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky exposed systematic translations of objective prob- ability and value as judged by human subjects. Applying these translations to the risk matrix allows the formation of statistical hypotheses of risk point placement biases. Industry-gener- ated risk matrix data reveals evidence of biases in the judgment of likelihood and conse- quence—principally, likelihood centering, a systematic increase in consequence, and a diagonal bias. Statistical analyses are conducted with linear regression, normal distribution fitting, and Bayesian analysis. Evidence presented could improve risk matrix based risk analysis prevalent in industry.
Keywords:
risk analysis; risk matrix; cognitive biases; utility function; subjective probability