In 2009, Euro NCAP intends to change its rating system. The new rating will put a greater emphasis on the pedestrian protection potential. Therefore, Euro NCAP endeavours to assess the vehicle’s overall safety performance and communicate it simply to consumers using a single star rating.

This study aims to estimate, how well the pedestrian rating system matches the expected realworld benefit. Furthermore, the benefit range achieved for different Euro NCAP pedestrian protection scores is determined. The vehicle impact zones and their related NCAP points are also evaluated for their actual effectiveness.

The analysis bases on the German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database. A case-by-case analysis was carried out for 667 frontal pedestrian accidents where the vehicle speed was 40kph or less. More than 500 AIS2+ injuries are analysed regarding severity, affected body region, impact point on the vehicle, and the particular NCAP zone. An injury shift method was then used to determine the benefit derived from each testing zone.

One result of the study is a detailed impact distribution for AIS2+ injuries across the vehicle front. The rating colour code distributions for different vehicles with various higher point levels were compared to the original dataset and to the current standard in pedestrian protection. In order to estimate the overall benefit range, the analyses used optimistic and pessimistic approaches.

It is shown that current vehicles already exhibit significant real-world benefits. Furthermore, the additional benefit for vehicles achieving various point scores were estimated although the calculated benefits are mostly over-estimations due to missing test results for older vehicles and conservative assumptions.

This is the first detailed analysis of injury causation in NCAP zones and has been made possible by high accident numbers. Thus, the expected realworld benefits of any vehicles can be compared to their Euro NCAP test results.