Summary: This study expands on previous findings that hip fracture rates may no longer be declining. We found that age- and sex-adjusted fracture rates in the US plateaued or increased through mid-2017 in a population of commercially insured and Medicare Advantage health plan enrollees, in contrast to a decline from 2007 to 2013.
Introduction: The purpose of this study was to evaluate fracture trends in US commercial and Medicare Advantage health plan members aged ≥ 50 years between 2007 and 2017.
Methods: Retrospective analysis of the Optum Research Database from January 1, 2007, to May 31, 2017.
Results: Of 1,841,263 patients identified with an index fracture, 930,690 were case-qualifying and included in this analysis. The overall age- and sex-adjusted fracture rate decreased from 14.67/1000 person-years (py) in 2007 to 11.79/1000 py in 2013, followed by a plateau for the next 3 years and then an increase to 12.50/1000 py in mid-2017. In females aged ≥ 65 years, fracture rates declined from 27.49/1000 py in 2007 to 22.08/1000 py in 2013, then increased to 24.92/1000 py in mid-2017. Likewise, fracture rates in males aged ≥ 65 years declined from 2007 (12.00/1000 py) to 2013 (10.72/1000 py), then increased to 12.04/1000 py in mid-2017. The age- and sex-adjusted fracture rates for most fracture sites declined from 2007 to 2013 by 3.7% per year (P = 0.310).
Conclusions: Following a consistent decline in fracture rate from 2007 to 2013, trends from 2014 to 2017 indicate fracture rates are no longer declining and, for some fracture types, rates are rising.
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