This study aims to assess whether older adults with low muscle mass or strength, in the presence of obesity, have an increased risk of knee (TKR) and hip replacement (THR) over 13 years. 1082 community-dwelling older adults (51% women;​ mean age 62.9 ± 7.5 years) were studied at baseline and multiple time points over 13 years. The incidence of TKR and THR was determined by data linkage to National Joint Replacement Registry. Appendicular lean and fat mass were measured using DXA. Lower-limb muscle strength (LMS) was assessed by dynamometer. Low muscle mass and strength were defined as the lowest sex-specific tertiles for appendicular lean mass (adjusted for height and total body fat mass) and lower-limb strength, respectively. Obesity was defined as the highest sex-specific tertile for total body fat mass. Competing risk regression models were used to estimate the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) for TKR and THR. Over 13 years of follow-up, 6.8% (n = 74/1082) of the participants had a TKR and 4.7% (n = 50/1066) had THR. Participants with the combination of obesity and low muscle strength (SHR 3.36, 95% CI 1.50, 7.53) but low muscle mass (SHR 1.11, 95% CI 0.52, 2.40) had a significantly increased risk of TKR, compared to individuals with neither obesity nor low muscle mass/strength. However, obesity with low muscle strength did not lead to a significantly greater risk of TKR compared to having low muscle strength or obesity alone. There was no evidence for an association between obesity with low muscle mass or strength and THR (all p > 0.05). This finding suggests that combining muscle and fat assessments to predict the future risk of TKR is no better than each condition on its own.