Vehicles in emerging markets are not typically regulated to the same extent as seen in industrialised regions. Casualty rates are considerably higher in these emerging markets, and the lack of vehicle safety regulation is responsible for at least some of the difference. With rapid growth in passenger cars expected, the number of road deaths and casualties in emerging markets is likely to rise, unless targeted and efficient interventions are planned and initiated urgently.

The objective of this work was to quantify the casualty benefit that could be realised in an emerging market, if the experiences and lessons learned in the Europe Union (EU), including minimum car safety standards and consumer testing, were efficiently applied. Malaysia was selected as the emerging market for study in this paper, because it is a Contracting Party to the UN 1958 Agreement and has recently applied the major UN vehicle safety regulations.

Clear differences in vehicle safety developments in Britain compared with Malaysia were identified through analysis of NCAP results and accident data. Frontal impact performance varied, with some cars tested in ASEAN NCAP performing to levels similar to those seen in Euro NCAP today, whilst others were significantly worse. Based on this evidence, in broad terms, this study assumes that new car models sold in Malaysia are approximately 10 years behind today’s (2014/15) equivalent European cars, in terms of vehicle safety developments. However, the fleet in Malaysia is older than that seen in Britain, so it is possible that the entire fleet (with many older cars) could reflect a level of safety more like Britain before 2004. Therefore, the Malaysian casualty benefits predicted by this study represent a conservative estimate.

By taking the vehicle safety development experience witnessed in the EU and applying it to the situation in an emerging market, this work quantifies the casualty reduction potential could be a saving of between 1,200 and 4,300 Malaysian fatalities by 2030.