U.S. injury trends projected to 2012:​ the influence of an aging population

Kent, Richard; Funk, Jim; Crandall, Jeff

An aging population’s effect on MAIS 3+ injury trends for passenger-car drivers in frontal crashes is projected and compared to the effects of projected changes in fleet composition, changes in belt usage, and changes in airbag availability. It is determined that increased frailty due to an aging population will result in 19,816 to 43,568 additional injuries from 1996 to 2012. Aging is shown to have an effect similar to the increased presence of light trucks in the fleet (a cumulative increase of approximately 47,428 injuries). Aging and changing fleet composition are shown to have a smaller effect than the projected increases in seatbelt use or airbag availability. After 2012, however, airbag availability and seatbelt use will plateau, while societal aging will continue.

Year

Entry

2000

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1995

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2001

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1999

McGwin G Jr, Brown DB. Characteristics of traffic crashes among young, middle-aged, and older drivers. Accid Anal Prev. May 1999;31(3):181-198.

1998

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